Could Texas A&M's purported move to the SEC lay the groundwork for UMass being invited to a BCS conference?
I'll be perfectly honest. I love the amount of realignment talk going on in college football. I don't care if the Big 12 ceases to exist, which is looking more likely by the day, and I'm excited at the possibility of superconferences, even if those feelings are fairly selfish. I went to UMass, and would love to see them join a conference such as the Big East. Every time talks of realignment come up, I think about the possibility of the Big East either deciding to add teams to get to the 12 required for a conference title game (and the payday that comes with televising it), or having their hands forced as teams are lured out by bigger, more lucrative opportunities. The discussion has come up again, so I decided to look into what moves would likely have to be made in order to present conditions that might facilitate a BCS conference invitation extended to UMass.
The latest rumors have begun to swirl as Texas A&M is reportedly entertaining the idea of moving to the SEC. Coupled with the reports that the SEC is exploring an addition of Virginia Tech as well, this would bump the conference up to 14 teams and most likely set in motion a chain reaction that could doom the Big 12. With Texas A&M gone, the two Oklahoma schools would be encouraged to seriously consider the moves they have been exploring, namely joining the Pac 12. Texas would then be faced with an interesting choice: joining Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in the Pac 12, or becoming independent, as the Big 12 will not survive once these moves begin. While I could foresee them becoming independent a la Notre Dame, and preserving the Long Horn Network partnership they've begun with ESPN, I would not be surprised if they instead choose to remain conference foes with Oklahoma and ensure the continuation of the Red River Rivalry.
Either way, once A&M and the Oklahoma teams bolt the Big 12, the conference as we know it is over. Texas Tech is sure to follow Oklahoma into the Pac 12, if that is where they end up. If Texas chooses to go the independent route, I could see the Pac 12 then moving to add either Boise State or BYU to get to the magic number of 16 teams, making them the first superconference and really forcing the other conferences to make similar moves in order to remain competitive financially. If Texas follows OU, OSU, and Tech, that gives them 16 without the risks associated with the other smaller programs.
If Virginia Tech does in fact leave the ACC for the SEC, that drops the number of ACC teams below the threshold for a conference championship game. The logical move for the ACC in this case would be to conduct a bit of a raid on the Big East, luring Pitt and West Virginia as the most likely options as they are two of the more successful Big East programs and already have a strong rivalry in place. Pulling in a third new team (Syracuse and Rutgers are the popular throw-ins at this point) would give the conference 14 football teams as well as bolstering their standing in basketball as well, depending on what schools they could bring in.
The Big East would be forced at this point to make a few additions of their own in order to retain their status as automatic qualifiers to the BCS as well as adding a championship game if they could bring in enough teams. With the Big 12 having only five teams remaining, adding these would be the obvious move. The Big East have made inquiries into adding Kansas and Kansas State in the past, and pulling in Iowa State, Missouri, and Baylor would certainly improve the national brand and prominence of the conference. However, this again would leave the conference with an odd number of teams, and one fewer than required for the title game. This is where UMass could potentially come into play. If Notre Dame, the logical 12th team as they are already a member of the conference in other sports, chooses to preserve its independence, the Big East would be left choosing between a few options: wooing a service academy in Army or Navy, coupling the recent addition of TCU with SMU from Conference USA, expanding out to the Rocky Mountains and really stretching the conference geography, or looking to a school like Massachusetts. While 2012 is to be UMass' first as a member of the FBS, the Big East has experience with schools making the transition, as UConn completed the move less than 10 years ago. UMass would make sense in terms of balancing the conferences between the East Coast and the newly-added Midwest schools. They also have a dormant rivalry with UConn that, in my opinion, has the potential to become a legitimate draw and the premier game in New England. The two state universities played each other yearly for much of their history until UConn made the move up to what was then Division 1-A, and the contests were always some of the most anticipated of their respective seasons. Likewise, a renewal of the basketball rivalry could prove lucrative for both schools, as that is the sport both are known for, and a major-conference affiliation for Minutemen basketball certainly would not hurt their recruiting efforts.
With the Big 12 gone, the only conference that looks as if it would hold off on making moves would be the Big 10, currently holding 12 teams and a TV deal that runs through 2016. As the Big 10 most likely would not participate in conference expansion until around the time that deal is to be renegotiated, it could end up being the future home to teams such as Boise State, BYU, Nevada, even Notre Dame. The possibilities are numerous, and change is exciting. However, in terms of how this could affect UMass, a lot of dominoes would have to fall in the right direction in order for them to seize an opportunity to move to a big-time, BCS power conference. The possibility does exist, however, and the next few weeks could get the ball rolling in that direction, as we all wait on Texas A&M.
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